Wednesday, August 20, 2008

9:59 AM - Fay's "Eye" Passed Directly Overhead Overnight

I quit blogging last night so that I could perform the basic hygenic activities and get some rest, because I was not sure whether FIT would cancel class today or not...
Well, I got out of bed around 7:00 this morning, and found the center of Fay's circulation still lingering just to the north of Melbourne.
The rain's still coming down - over 6 inches since midnight according to the Roberts Hall webpage. We clearly have had well over a foot since Fay began gracing us with her presence early yesterday morning.
Sustained winds are holding in the 20-25 MPH range, with gusts around 35 MPH. The barometer is currently 1000.3 mb and rising as Fay moves on to bigger and better things over the Gulf Stream.

Upon inspection of data this morning, it has become clear that Fay's center of circulation passed directly overhead of or very near campus between 1:00 and 1:30 this morning. The Roberts Hall station reported winds of less that 10 MPH from 1:00 to 1:30, while the wind direction shifted from the NE to the SW within that very short time period. My barometer also shows that the air pressure bottomed out at 992 millibars around 1:45 this morning, which, according to the 2 AM advisory from the National Hurricane Center, was the minimum central pressure of Fay at the time...All very convincing evidence that the very small and compact center of Fay passed directly overhead of FIT.
How cool!

If my analysis isn't enought for you, above is a map from The Weather Underground showing Fay's track in blue, FIT's campus in the yellow box, and Roberts Hall (where the weather station is located) under the black dot. Wow!

Tuesday, August 19, 2008

8:07 PM - Crane Creek Flooding

Check the past two posts for another video, a couple of pictures, and a description of the same outing.


8:02 - Minor Flooding

7:26 PM - A Calm Time for Pictures

My roommate and fellow meteorologist, JJ, and I just came back from a short 10-minute walk around a small part of the campus here at FIT. We found a VERY flooded Crane Creek (at least 2-3 vertical feet above normal) and some other flooded areas around campus. Here's a couple of pictures we took on our walk...I also have some video that I am working on uploading now.
Note: The water shown in the still pictures here is not Crane Creek. I have video of Crane Creek to post soon. Also, the places where we took photos and video were fairly sheltered by buildings and trees...The wind is significantly stronger in open areas...Maybe we will get some video of that later tonight.

Currently, the pressure is holding around 1000.6 mb, but will contiune to trend downward as Fay's still well-formed eye approaches. Stay tuned.

5:30-5:50: Darkness

After a short period of light rain and little win, the rain has now picked up in intensity, along with some more significant wind gusts. The outer rain band that has been affecting us for most of the day is now passed, and now we are into an even more intense inner rain band. Extreme rain rates - 1 to 2 inches per hour - are here now, as the strongest squall yet passes.
I noted just before beginning to write this post at 5:30 an eerie darkness come over the campus. Then the rain picked up, along with the wind. It will likely be this way - and worse - well into the night.

The pressure is now down to 1001.1 mb here in the dorm, and between 8 and 9 inches of rain has fallen since midnight...Most of which fell within the last 12 hours.

The lights have been flickering off and on all afternoon, and we may lose power at some time this evening.


The outer rain band that has dominated the weather here on campus can be seen just above the black X. The inner rain band is marked by the yellow area to the south of the X. Close study of the radar and satellite imagery finds that the eye of this strong tropical storm will likely pass directly over or just a little to the west of FIT. It will be an exciting night.

It is also important to note the remarkable strengthening of Fay as she crosses over land...The pressure has dropped 10 millibars since landfall 15 hours ago! We have not seen the last of this storm either, for sure.

3:09 PM - Update

Roberts Hall's 2:00 PM report shows a 29 MPH sustained wind with a gust to 41 MPH, our first officially recorded tropical storm-forced gust here at FIT.

Melbourne Int'l Airport reported a sustained 40 MPH with a gust to 52 on its 2:53 PM observation, so we are officially in tropical storm conditions now.

The past half hour has seen a dramatic increase in rain rate, probably 1"+ per hour.

The pressure has dropped to 1004.5 mb.

2:20 - Bad Diet

Due to the fact that I am on a meal plan with FIT and the closest dining establishment where I can use that meal plan is a long, wet walk away, I have not gone out to eat at all today.

Therefore, my diet today has consisted of Choc-Colossal Crunch and Sun Chips. Not exactly what I call healthy, but I can deal with it for a day.

Meanwhile, the pressure has dropped down to 1005.4 millibars on my Weems & Plath digital barometer, and the rain rate has picked up. The Roberts Hall weather station's 1:15 PM report (the last one posted) reported 24 MPH sustained wind and a 36 MPH gust, with 3.11 inches of rain accumulated since midnight.

Note: The pressure has dropped an additional 5 mb in the last 10 minutes, to 1004.9 mb. The center is approaching!

2:13 PM - First Big Squall


FIT is now under our first big squall from Fay...and there's many more to come.

The black marks show the direction of motion of this significant rainband.
We can expect very heavy rain and possibly some 40+ MPH gusts within these squalls.

1:36-2:06 PM-A good-lookin' storm!

I have noticed something interesting about Fay as she moves slowly across South Florida.
Satellite and radar imagery clearly continue to show a very well-organized storm, even as Fay's center of circulation has been over land for over 10 hours now. As a matter of fact, Fay has developed a clear eye feature on satellite imagery, and the radar also shows this clean, compact eye very nicely.

It is likely that the flat, wet expanses of South Florida have made conditions more conducive for Fay to retain her strength while crossing over the land. However, radar and satellite imagery do indicate some dry air wrapping into the storm's center, and this should lead to a weakening trend (stating the obvious here) until the center of circulation emerges over the Atlantic Ocean.

INDIAN RIVER AND BREVARD COUNTIES (INCLUDING MEBOURNE) ARE NOW UNDER A TORNADO WARNING. http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=FLZ047&warncounty=FLC009&firewxzone=FLZ047&local_place1=Melbourne+FL&product1=Tornado+Warning

The air pressure in my room is now at 1005.9 mb and falling rapidly. I expect the pressure to bottom out at around 995 mb sometime tonight as Fay passes us by. The winds are picking up, with frequent gusts in the 30 MPH range. I would like to take the my anemometer out for some use later this evening as the winds become sustained near TS force. Preparations are being made for that now, and my roommate, JJ, a fellow meteorology major, wants to go too. We will try to get some video of that outing, as well...while trying not to sustain water damage to both my anemometer and my camera......or ourselves :-D

12:46 - Chagrin

Listening to the radio last night, I wondered whether classes would be canceled here at FIT today due to the high wind a driving rain. Considering the fact that 1000+ students here rely upon their feet and their bicycles to get to and from class, I assumed that our school administration would give us a break and cancel classes for the day.
As I listened to the long list of schools, school districts, and universities/colleges being read off, I was somewhat surprised when I heard the words "Florida Tech will hold classes tomorrow..."
I do not dislike my classes or my new school, but I did not look forward to riding my bike to class today.
Fortunately for me, I have only two classes scheduled for Tuesday. One of those classes is chemistry lab that was held at 8:00 this morning. The ride to and from the Olin Physical Science Buidling was breezy and slightly wet, but bearable.
However, the ride to my second class, a calculus lecture scheduled for 3:30 PM in the Crawford Building, does not look to be quite as bearable.
BREAKING NEWS: JUST AS I WAS WRITING THIS, I CHECKED MY EMAIL AND RECEIVED A MESSAGE FROM THE SCHOOL ANNOUNCING THAT THE UNIVERSITY WILL BE CLOSED AT 3:00. JUST IN TIME TO NOT HAVE TO BIKE IN THE RAIN!

11:44 AM - Estimated TS gusts & first thunder

This is my blog of Tropical Storm Fay as it passes through my new home of Melbourne, FL.
First, a little background information about myself:
I am a native Floridian and maintain a Florida-themed blog at http://www.minorcan.blogspot.com/.
I have experienced multiple tropical storms and hurricanes over my lifetime.
I am fascinated by the weather (especially hurricanes)
I am a freshman at the Florida Institute of Technology here in Melbourne, majoring in...this won't come as a surprise...meteorology.
I am not an expert on tropical storms, but I know more than most about their behaviors, and am a fairly experience weather observationalist.

Here is an image from the Melbourne NWS WRD-88D Doppler Weather Radar, showing Fay, her path, and my location. This should give you a good idea of the current situation.





As the title of this post suggests, just 10-20 minutes ago, I observed what I believed to be tropical storm forced wind GUSTS. These gusts were associated with a small squall which has now passed, and gusts are back down into the 20-30 MPH range now. Melbourne Int'l Airport reported a gust to 39 MPH at 10:53 AM, just short of TS force, but conditions worsened shortly after that observation.


My school, the Florida Institute of Technology has a weather station located at the top of a dormitory very near where I live. Unfortunately, observations are significantly delayed. Here's the link to those observations, some of which I will be citing in blog posts.


http://my.fit.edu/wx_fit/?q=obs%2Frealtime%2Froberts&rows=24


The characteristic "whistling" and "whining" of a tropical storm/hurricane can be heard during some of the stronger wind gusts now, and more can be expected within the next couple of hours as the storm approaches and the stronger rainbands pass over our area.


I'll have photos and possibly video posted soon.